UK Gas Prices Up On Cold:

British gas prices firmed on Wednesday, with cold weather across Europe driving up demand, but the upside was limited by liquefied natural gas arrivals and a fall in U.S. business gas prices.  Gas for Thursday was up 0.10 pence to 35 pence per therm, compared with day-ahead contracts late on Tuesday, while January gained 0.35 pence to 34.50 pence and February was up 0.30 pence to 35 pence.

“The prompt is strong all the way along to the weekend, and that’s reflecting the cold weather, which is below seasonal norms,” one trader said. Britain’s forecast gas demand for Wednesday was 393.5 million cubic metres a day (mcm), higher than seasonal norms of 319 mcm, National Grid data showed.

Temperatures in northwest Europe are expected to be up to six degrees Celsius below normal for the next five days, although it could be above normal further out according to the six to 10 day forecast.

“If we have cold weather in January, it could start to see the curve shifting up as we’ll need to start refilling storage which is usually done is summer when prices are low,” he added.

But supply was strong, with the Al Sheehaniya LNG tanker expected on Jan. 1, making it three vessels due to arrive in Britain at the beginning of January.  And traders said a fall in U.S. gas prices was limiting gains along the curve, with U.S. futures contracts ending three percent lower at the end of trade on Tuesday.

Gas for second quarter 2010 was flat on 33.25 pence, while gas for third quarter 2010 firmed 0.10 pence at 33.75 pence. In power, prompt eased on lower demand over the Christmas and New Year holiday period.

Baseload power for Thursday was 34.75 pounds per megawatt hour, compared with 35.25 pounds for day-ahead contracts late on Tuesday. “There is a potential reduction of supply margins over the New Year, but gas and oil are still strong and giving power prices support,” one trader said.

Peak demand for Thursday was forecast to be 49.8 gigawatts, compared with 51.2 gigawatts peak demand for Wednesday.

UK Gas Prices Up On Cold:

British gas prices firmed on Wednesday, with cold weather across Europe driving up demand, but the upside was limited by liquefied natural gas arrivals and a fall in U.S. business gas prices.  Gas for Thursday was up 0.10 pence to 35 pence per therm, compared with day-ahead contracts late on Tuesday, while January gained 0.35 pence to 34.50 pence and February was up 0.30 pence to 35 pence.

“The prompt is strong all the way along to the weekend, and that’s reflecting the cold weather, which is below seasonal norms,” one trader said. Britain’s forecast gas demand for Wednesday was 393.5 million cubic metres a day (mcm), higher than seasonal norms of 319 mcm, National Grid data showed.

Temperatures in northwest Europe are expected to be up to six degrees Celsius below normal for the next five days, although it could be above normal further out according to the six to 10 day forecast.

“If we have cold weather in January, it could start to see the curve shifting up as we’ll need to start refilling storage which is usually done is summer when prices are low,” he added.

But supply was strong, with the Al Sheehaniya LNG tanker expected on Jan. 1, making it three vessels due to arrive in Britain at the beginning of January.  And traders said a fall in U.S. gas prices was limiting gains along the curve, with U.S. futures contracts ending three percent lower at the end of trade on Tuesday.

Gas for second quarter 2010 was flat on 33.25 pence, while gas for third quarter 2010 firmed 0.10 pence at 33.75 pence. In power, prompt eased on lower demand over the Christmas and New Year holiday period.

Baseload power for Thursday was 34.75 pounds per megawatt hour, compared with 35.25 pounds for day-ahead contracts late on Tuesday. “There is a potential reduction of supply margins over the New Year, but gas and oil are still strong and giving power prices support,” one trader said.

Peak demand for Thursday was forecast to be 49.8 gigawatts, compared with 51.2 gigawatts peak demand for Wednesday.

SSE Hopes Dashed:

Scottish & Southern Energy’s hopes of becoming the UK’s largest electricity network appear to be fading as the sovereign wealth fund of Abu Dhabi prepares to bid for assets put up for sale by EDF. Perth-based SSE was thought to be the leading contender to buy EDF’s three English electricity distribution networks, which are expected to fetch more than £4billion.

But yesterday reports emerged that Abu Dhabi Investment Authority (ADIA), the world’s largest sovereign wealth fund, had hired advisers about a bid for the assets valued at around £5bn.

According to the reports, the ADIA is investigating a joint bid with Canadian Pension Plan, a pension fund, and has hired investment bankers at Goldman Sachs and Lexicon Partners to advise on the bid.

Emerging as an early leading candidate for the sale, SSE has already appeared to play down the chances of it snapping up the assets.

Following Ofgem’s review on what utilities are allowed to charge customers of distribution networks between 2010 and 2015, SSE warned that the level of returns allowed by the energy regulator may put it off investment in the sector.

Earlier this month, SSE begrudgingly said it would accept Ofgem’s findings, but a spokeswoman told The Scotsman that the review was likely to reduce what it would be prepared to pay for EDF’s distribution networks.

The Scottish utility has already said that if it did bid it would probably do so as part of a joint venture with Borealis, a Canadian pension fund.

The networks put up for sale by EDF cover London, the South East and the East of England, distributing electricity to almost eight million homes.

SSE already owns two electricity distribution networks, one in Scotland and one in England. Buying the EDF assets would have made it the largest player in the sector, and some industry sources have warned that it could prompt competition concerns.

EDF, the majority owner of nuclear company British Energy, is thought to have put the assets up for sale in a bid to cut its debt pile, and help fund an expensive investment programme, which includes building new nuclear power plants in the UK.

Other utilities thought to be in contention to bid for the assets include National Grid and Hong Kong’s Cheung Kong Infrastructure Holdings.

Ambitious Emissions Cuts:

As nations debate sweeping carbon-emission cuts in Copenhagen, one country has become a model of ambitious targets the U.K. Whether it has the right system in place to achieve those goals is another matter.  Britain has one of the most open, competitive energy markets in Europe. Its system has delivered real benefits to consumers in the form of lower prices for electricity and gas. But there is growing skepticism that the U.K. will be able to hit its target of a 34% cut in greenhouse-gas emissions by 2020 and 80% by 2050 with the kind of deregulated, liberalized energy system it currently has in place.

It’s still cheaper for U.K. power providers to entice consumers with inexpensive energy generated by dirtier technologies such as gas-fired power plants than through cleaner means such as nuclear or wind power. Critics of the government say Britain hasn’t yet come up with a financial framework that adequately encourages construction of cleaner plants.

Many Western governments have championed energy deregulation, even as they face doubts about whether decarbonizing an economy can be left to the market. A recent report by the U.K.’s Committee on Climate Change, or CCC, an independent body advising the government, said it was unsure the market in its current form “will deliver required investments in low-carbon power generation” through the 2020s.

“You can’t be confident that arrangements designed to deliver the efficient dispatch of a fossil-fuel fired plant can deliver a totally different objective” of big investment in nuclear and renewables, says David Kennedy, the CCC’s chief executive.

The U.K.’s record in reducing emissions leaves room for improvement. The CCC says they fell at less than 1% annually from 2003 to 2007, and will need to fall at 2% a year for the U.K. to meet its targets. The government says Britain’s greenhouse gases have come down by more than 20% from 1990 levels and that it is on track to meet its goal of a 34% reduction by 2020.

The U.K. broke up and privatized its electricity monopoly in the 1980s and 1990s, and removed controls on prices. But a big chunk of the U.K.’s electricity-generation capacity will disappear over the next decade, as high-emitting coal-fired power stations and older nuclear reactors are shut. What replaces them will have huge implications for the U.K.’s ability to keep to its carbon targets.

In theory, the price of carbon should dictate decisions on such investments. The European Union’s emissions-trading plan sets an overall cap on the output of greenhouse gases. The price of permits to emit CO2 then creates incentives to cut emissions and invest in low-carbon technology.

But the recession triggered a steep fall in the price of carbon in the EU trading system, and it has languished at about £15 a ton for months, down from around £30 in the summer of 2008. The result: the economics of capital-intensive projects like offshore wind farms still don’t add up.

Instead, companies tend to opt for gas-fired power stations, which are cheap, quick and easy to build. But burning more of the fossil fuel means the U.K. may miss its emissions target.

Sam Laidlaw, head of utility Centrica PLC, has called for a support mechanism to be activated if the price of carbon in the emission-trading system fell below a certain floor. This would provide the certainty companies need to make investment decisions, he says.

Others advocate tougher state intervention. Even the opposition Conservatives say they are looking at ways of supporting the carbon price. From the party that drove through the privatization of the U.K.’s energy sector, that is a big change.

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SSE Wins New Contract:

Scottish & Southern Energy has reinforced its position as the UK’s largest streetlight manager after winning a £225 million contract in the south of England.  The Perth-based SSE, which already looks after more than one million street lights, has won a contract to manage lighting for councils in Hampshire, Southampton and West Sussex.  The largest private finance initiative (PFI) project of its kind, the 25 year-contract will see SSE replace and maintain 250,000 streetlights, illuminated signs and bollards.

SSE now monitors 500,000 street lights under PFI contracts. Chief operating officer Colin Hood praised the initiatives, saying: “The PFI approach has proved to be a successful way of replacing older street lighting infrastructure and is delivering better-lit streets that help communities lead safer and secure lives.” Under the latest deal, which begins in April, SSE will install more-efficient bulbs, as well as remote monitoring apparatus for Southampton and Hampshire, allowing lighting to be controlled and dimmed remotely to save energy.

Ground Source Heat Pumps:

Renewable technology that uses energy stored in the ground to heat buildings and provide hot water could be installed in hundreds of thousands of homes and offices by the end of the next decade, a report said today.

About 8,000 ground-source heat pump systems were operating in the UK – far fewer than in other European countries, such as Sweden, although the market was expanding rapidly and doubled last year, the Environment Agency report said.

The document concluded that the technology could be installed in 320,000 homes and businesses by 2020 with support from the government.

If enough support was given through the renewable heat incentive, which will be introduced in 2012 and pay homeowners and businesses a guaranteed price for generating renewable heat, more than 1m ground-source heat pumps systems could be put in place.

At the top end of its potential, ground-source heat technology could be installed in more than one in 10 homes and in 40% of commercial buildings, the report said.

Even if growth was limited to 320,000 homes and business – 1% of households and 11% of commercial buildings – it could provide 30% of the renewable heat the UK needed to produce to meet its 2020 target.

“Ground-source heating is a rapidly growing technology that has the potential to produce at least 30% of the country’s renewable heat needs – but it needs financial support in order to grow,” Tony Grayling, the head of climate change and sustainable development at the Environment Agency, said.

“We would like to see this technology given adequate financial support through the new renewable heat incentive to meet its full potential in the UK.”

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http://www.in2play.co.uk/directory/?p=3-273 aOtAacneerftfveeEofrfs

The Next Decade For Energy:

As the end to another decade draws to a close, we take a look at what 2010 and the next 10 years is likely to bring for the UK energy market.  One thing is for certain that Governmental policy and social awareness will be the key drivers that influence the ever changing energy market over the next decade. 

With increased legislation and the start of the UK carbon trading market next year, through the recently introduced Carbon Reduction Commitment, large energy consumers will be obliged to enter the UK cap-and-trade scheme. 

Although nobody can accurately predict where this will end, we expect that over the next decade this will filter down to smaller and smaller business, until eventually a carbon allowance will be expected of each individual.  The signs of this change are already happening, and perhaps this is the only way the UK can meet is Kyoto obligation of reducing CO2 emissions by 80% by the year 2050. 

One thing is for certain that this legalisation will focus the mind and make us all aware of how much we depend on long term renewable energy sources. It will also produce a multi billion pound industry as we strive for new advances in technology that will allow us to harness the power of nature, to produce these sustainable energy sources. 

With the current demand expected to outstrip supply as early as 2015, we are in desperate need of additional supply, be this from traditional coal or gas fired generation through to further nuclear generation, coming online over the next decade. 

Which ever way this happens, it will cause controversy either politically, environmentally or through the “ClimateGate” debunkers. 

What ever happens over the next decade there’s going to be a different attitude towards how we obtain and use any form of energy, and this is likely to gather momentum as the next generation of children grow up in a world that would appear totally alien to us in the future.

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UK Winter Gas Prices:

British gas prices were firm early on Wednesday as cold weather was forecast for the weekend, though ample supply capped upside, especially as liquidity was declining in the run-up to Christmas.  Gas for Wednesday stood at 32 pence per therm, up 1.50 pence from within day contract late on Tuesday. Working day next week put on 0.60 pence to 32.10 pence and January added 1.30 pence to 32.60 pence.

“Cold weather is predicted for this weekend, which people are using to push things up,” said a trader. “There’s more uptake. Still there’s a lot of gas around. Fundamentals are still bearish.”

The National Grid said the system was short early on Wednesday, with Norwegian input via the Langeled pipeline down at around 44 million cubic metres per day from around 50 million and imports via Interconnector down to around 10 million from 20 million. A spokesman from Statoil declined to comment on the slowdown in flows via the Langeled pipeline.

Input from LNG terminals also slowed, despite many cargoes expected to arrive in the country before the year end. South Hook LNG flows slipped to about 30 million from above 40 million and input from Dragon to 7 million from more than 10 million. Isle of Grain added only 2 million.

Along the curve, the 2010 first quarter was up 0.85 pence to 32.75 pence, pushed up by stronger prompt prices.  The 2010 winter rose 0.50 pence to 31.20 pence, while the 2010 winter climbed 0.70 pence to 46.70 pence.

In the power market, prompt prices edged up, supported by firm commercial gas prices and higher exports to Continental Europe.

Baseload electricity for Thursday stood at 35 pounds per megawatt hour, compared with 34.75 pounds for day ahead contracts late on Tuesday.

The first quarter stood at 35.95 pounds, while the 2010 summer fetched 36.05 pounds.

The National Grid data showed nearly 2,000 megawatts were flowing to Continental Europe since early on Wednesday.

Fears Of A Water Crunch:

Water and waste contractors are gearing up for “substantial challenges” after Ofwat’s final budget allowances for capital expenditure fell almost £2 billion short of what the largest clients claimed to need for the next five years.

The water regulator last week earmarked a total of £22.1bn for capital expenditure across the country’s 21 business water and sewerage and water-only firms under Asset Management Period 5.

A total of £20.7bn of the expenditure will come from the UK’s 10 largest water and sewerage groups – but the figure falls considerably short of the £22.4bn they told the regulator they would require for their 2010 to 2015 programmes.

The deficit had been much larger under the regulator and industry’s draft plans, with companies having originally claimed to need £27.4bn and Ofwat only promising £19.1bn. Contractors said the determinations were higher than they were expecting in the current climate, but were likely to mean the need for cost savings.

Black & Veatch managing director Chris Scott said: “Broadly speaking, the settlement is positive, but not without substantial challenges. “The increase in capital expenditure between the final determination and the draft determination is welcome.

However, it is important to remember that water companies are not a homogenous group; as a result, the determination will affect different companies in different ways.”

May Gurney chief executive Philip Fellowes-Prynne said it was most likely water firms would curtail their spending on the construction of new assets first, adding: “The likes of mains replacement and maintenance work will still be required, and obviously if you have water quality problems they need to be addressed.”

Costain’s group strategy and business development director Stephen Wells suggested that while water contractors had the right to negotiate deferrals for new projects, it was not the norm.

He said: “It would be wrong to say everything will go according to plan. The capital expenditure programmes will come under pressure but, under EU directives, the UK Plcs have an obligation to deliver assets.”

Mr Wells said contractors had expected the determinations to be tight. He added: “It is never ideal, but in our strategic planning we have taken account for these sort of eventualities.

“It is not about cutting margins, but clearly there are challenges for a lot of the Plcs to find efficiency savings, and it will be important to value engineer to help them get more asset for less cost.”

The water companies have two months to respond to Ofwat’s decision but some – including South West Water and Thames Water – have already highlighted funding deficits.

Utility Warehouse:

Rupert Jones The Guardian, Saturday 5th December 2009

At first glance, the little cards landing on doormats up and down the country have all the hallmarks of a scam. “Would you like some extra money each month? More free time? To be able to choose your future?” they ask. It’s “the opportunity of a lifetime”, with no experience necessary. Full training and support are provided, free of charge. At the bottom, there’s someone’s name, a mobile phone number and a website address.

Most of us would probably stick the card in the bin, thinking it is a pyramid selling scam, or a get-rich-quick scheme that amounts to stuffing envelopes at home. But look again and you will see that “a major British plc” is involved.

Meanwhile, some people will have had a newspaper-style flyer through their letterbox filled with stories of ordinary folk who have bought “dream homes”, Jaguars and Bentleys, and are enjoying all-expenses-paid cruises, after signing up for this “opportunity”.

So what’s it all about?

The answer involves lots of gobbledegook about “infinity payments” and “the power of duplication”, and one of Britain’s best-loved comedy duos.

However, this is no scam – it is all entirely legal and above board. The recipients of the cards and flyers are being invited to become a “distributor” (a sort of salesperson) for a company called the Utility Warehouse.

The firm’s sales methods have certainly proved successful. So far it has signed up 320,000 homes and small businesses for its range of utility services – gas, electricity, broadband, and home and mobile phone. The Utility Warehouse brand is owned and run by Telecom Plus plc, which is listed on the London Stock Exchange, and it is licensed by energy regulator Ofgem and regulated by Ofcom. Dawn French and Jennifer Saunders have filmed a number of short, jokey videos promoting the brand. And last week it said it had been named the UK’s best energy provider by Which? magazine.

But the company is controversial. A thread on MoneySavingExpert.com debating Utility Warehouse’s pricing and service runs to 447 pages. During the past four years, it has twice had complaints about its leaflets upheld by the Advertising Standards Authority. The most recent run-in, in 2007, involved leaflets promoting its phone services, described as “misleading” by the ASA.

Customers persuaded to switch to Utility Warehouse can usually find better savings elsewhere. Its tariffs are broadly in line with the mainstream providers, but are around 20% more expensive than the best deals.

The company is the first to say that “you may not have heard of the Utility Warehouse before”. It does not advertise, does not have shops, and does not seek out national press coverage. In the short films, French and Saunders joke about “Utility Who-House?”. It relies on “word of mouth recommendation by existing satisfied customers”.

This is where its army of distributors come in. They earn money by encouraging people to become customers of the Utility Warehouse, and by “introducing” new distributors into the business. Last week, Telecom Plus said its distributor numbers had surged by nearly 5,000 in a matter of months to 31,800.

“The opportunity to save money and make money is a pretty compelling proposition at the moment,” says Humphrey Couchman, Telecom Plus’s communications director. He adds that this type of network marketing is much more established in the US; in the UK, there is “a certain cynicism about it,” with some taking the view that it all “seems to be a bit too good to be true”.

Asked how much its distributors could earn, he declines to give figures but says that for those prepared to work at it over time, “you can make a serious amount of money”.

While the Utility Warehouse website carries a statutory warning urging people “not to be misled by claims that high earnings are easily achieved”, it is less coy than Couchman about the sums its salespeople can make. One, an air stewardess from Lancashire, is quoted saying that “before I even think about my monthly commission I’ve received, I’ve had over £6,500 in bonuses alone in my first 18 months with the business! Not bad for part-time!”

To become a distributor, you sign up with an existing distributor, hence the cards and flyers carrying contact details. There is a £199.75 joining fee, which the company says is refunded if you recruit 12 customers in your first 90 days. Distributors earn a bonus of up to £40 for every customer they sign up, for example, £10 when someone takes out a mobile phone contract and up to £20 for broadband. They also earn a monthly income based on how much customers spend on the services they take. In addition, they can introduce other distributors to the business and earn a smaller amount of commission on what customers spend, too.

“Every time your customers make a phone call, switch on a light, turn on the heating or surf the net, you could be getting paid,” the website says. “Imagine your team at Telecom Plus spreading out underneath you like a mushroom, going into hundreds or even thousands of distributors, dozens of levels deep, right across the country. As this happens, thousands of customers will be gathered for you by other people…

The consequences of this is a massive group of customers and you getting paid on every single one of them – that’s down to infinity,” it adds.

Distributors can earn promotion when they hit targets, and pick up bonuses ranging from £250 to £20,000, according to the website. There are other incentives, including the chance to be given a Utility Warehouse-branded BMW Mini, and drive “one of the company’s fleet of Porsche Boxsters”.

So why is there no mention on the cards of the Utility Warehouse or how people earn the monthly income? “They are seeking to generate a certain level of intrigue,” says Couchman. Once you start to talk about gas and electricity, “people tend to switch off”.

Its methods may not be to everyone’s taste but the company must be doing something right: last week, it said it was on target to report record revenue and a record dividend for the full year. If unemployment continues to rise, we are likely to see many more people enthusing about home phone and broadband deals in the hope of making a packet and, perhaps, getting the keys to one of those free Minis.

It pays to check the small print before making the switch

Utility Warehouse tries to grab customers with the lure of big discounts when they buy all its products, but a Money analysis of its complex tariffs suggests most people are better off elsewhere.

Customers of its dual-fuel gas and electricity tariff (which goes under the Telecom Plus brand) are typically paying around 20% more than if they were on the cheapest online tariff in their region.

TheEnergyShop.com comparison site shows Telecom Plus customers spending £1,100 to heat and light their home would save up to £230 a year by switching to the cheapest supplier. Those with above average consumption would save more.

The home phone/broadband offer from UW is not the cheapest. It is competitive, but only if you agree to take all four utilities, as that gives you free calls to other landlines. TalkTalk/Tiscali has a package which is cheaper, and comes with unlimited internet access. UW’s basic broadband package has a 40GB limit and new customers don’t get a wi-fi router.

In the mobile phone arena, it’s a similar story. Someone wanting one of its pay-as-you-go Sim cards has to pay £10, which includes £3 of calls. After that you pay 12p/minute for calls and texts are 10p. However, switch to Asda Mobile (coverage is provided by Vodafone) and you’ll pay £1 for the Sim, while calls are 8p/min and texts just 4p.

UW says anyone spending £350 a year on gas and taking all four offers is rewarded with £100 cashback at the end of the year. The website makes much of its energy “Triple Value” guarantee although, when you look at the small print, it only guarantees to be cheaper than British Gas’s standard gas price, and that charged by your former regional electricity supplier. Every dual-fuel tariff will undercut those prices. The energy is supplied by npower whose own online tariff undercuts UW by £184.

The 5% cashback on member purchases at Sainsbury’s and other selected retailers looks attractive. However you have to buy a pre-paid MasterCard for £9.99. It costs 35p to load up, or 2% if you use a credit card, eating into the 5% discount.

There is very little pricing info on the UW website. To get the true cost of everything you have to ring up. One positive note is that members have the benefit of only one bill for all utilities. Still, the system appears designed to reward members who can sell on its services –those who persuade 50 friends to buy all four services from the firm pay nothing for their own bills, which could easily be worth £2,000 a year.

Consumer group Which? is standing by its rating system which puts Utility Warehouse top of the pack for home phones. Every year Which? asks members to say how utility providers have performed. In its most recent survey on energy, 119 UW customers out of 320,000 responded. Which? said it was confident UW salespeople are not skewing its findings.

“We go back to all our respondents to ask whether they are distributors for the company, and the data is amended to take into account any that are. We are confident our findings are robust,” it said.

Ratings for UW also appear on moneysupermarket.com’s website, which asks all power customers for feedback. Those who used Telecom Plus, its energy brand, give it 7/10. But it is evident that UW polarises opinion. Ratings tend to be 10/10, or 1 or 2/10. As with most websites, there is nothing to stop UW distributors (salespeople) posting reviews.